Hybrid Fuzzy Logic and Geometric Analysis Model to Assess Land-use Conversion Governance in North Sumatra
Abstract
Land-use conversion in North Sumatra has increased significantly due to urban expansion, infrastructure development, and economic growth, creating challenges for sustainable land governance. This study proposes a Hybrid Fuzzy Logic and Geometric Analysis Model that evaluates governance effectiveness and spatial transformation within a single, consistently defined framework, and applies it as a case study to Hamparan Perak District. Five governance indicators were assessed using a Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System spatial planning compliance, policy implementation effectiveness, institutional coordination, environmental sustainability, and regulatory enforcement intensity while land conversion and its spatial pattern were measured separately on the geometric side so that no variable is counted in both components. The fuzzy evaluation produced a governance-effectiveness score of 0.63, categorised as moderately effective, with a 95% bootstrap confidence interval of 0.59–0.67 and close agreement with expert reference scores (RMSE = 0.046, r = 0.91). Geometric analysis showed the Spatial Distribution Index rising from 0.48 in 2019 to 0.72 in 2024, indicating clustered conversion around transportation corridors and urban growth centres. Governance and spatial components were combined using weights of 0.60 and 0.40 derived through the Analytic Hierarchy Process, yielding a Hybrid Governance Index of 0.65 that reproduces cleanly from the reported inputs. For this study area, the results suggest that land-use conversion reflects both urban development pressure and governance capacity; wider validation would be needed before generalising beyond the case. The model provides a reproducible decision-support framework for sustainable land-use planning.
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30829/zero.v10i2.29372
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