Nighttime Lights in Unit-Level Small Area Estimation for Estimating per Capita Expenditure

Diaztri Hazam, Erfiani Erfiani, Anang Kurnia

Abstract


The most widely used auxiliary variables for estimating per capita expenditure using small area estimation (SAE) are from National Socio-Economic Survey (SUSENAS) or Village Potential (PODES) data. Another alternative is remote sensing, which can quickly and cheaply identify area characteristics, such as nighttime lights (NTL). This study will compare the SAE model with auxiliary variables using PODES data, NTL data, and a combination of both. The method used is a unit-level SAE model with log-transformation to estimate per capita expenditure at the subdistrict level in Bandung Regency.  Model performance was assessed using Relative Root Mean Squared Error (RRMSE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Estimation from all models have a similar range. The model with auxiliary variables using PODES data and combined data has similar RRMSE, AIC, and BIC. The model with auxiliary variables using only NTL data has the smallest RRMSE, AIC, and BIC.


Keywords


Nighttime lights; Per capita expenditure; Small area estimation.

Full Text:

PDF

References


J. N. K. Rao and I. Molina, “Small Area Estimation,” New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118735855

L. Latifah, K Sadik, and Indahwati, “Simulation study of hierarchical Bayesian approach for small area estimation with measurement error,” BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 2059–2070, 2023. https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol17iss4pp2059-2070

S. L. Lohr and N. G. N. Prasad, “Small Area Estimation with Auxiliary Survey,” [Online]. Available: https://www.stat.ualberta.ca/people/prasad/preprints/Tech%20Report_01_08.pdf

R. E. Fay III and R. A. Herriot, “Estimates of income for small places: an application of James-Stein procedures to census data,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 74, no. 366a, pp. 269–277, 1979. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482505

R. Ananda, K. A. Notodiputro, and M. N. Aidi, “Modified mixed effects random forest in small area estimation using PCA and rotation forest with correlated auxiliary variables,” Scientific Journal of Informatics, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 705–720, 2024. https://doi.org/10.15294/sji.v11i3.10633

J. N. K. Rao, “Small Area Estimation,” New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1002/0471722189

P. A. Parker, R. Janicki, and S. H. Holan, “A comprehensive overview of unit-level modelling of survey data for small area estimation under informative sampling,” Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 829–857, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1093/jssam/smad020

A. Kurnia, “Prediksi terbaik empirik untuk model transformasi logaritma di dalam pendugaan area kecil dengan penerapan pada data SUSENAS,” dissertation, Bogor: IPB University, 2009.

N. Permatasari and A. Ubaidillah, “Small area estimation of poverty using remote sensing data,” Statistical Journal of the IAOS, vol. 41, no. 1, pp. 180–190, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1177/18747655241308390

D. Handayani, H. Folmer, A. Kurnia, and K. A. Notodiputro, “The spatial empirical bayes predictor of the small area mean for a lognormal variable of interest and spatially correlated random effects,” Empir Econ, vol. 55, pp. 147–167, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1452-5

G. Fauziah, A. Kurnia, and A. Djuraidah, “The empirical best linear unbiased prediction and the empirical best predictor unit-level approaches in estimating per capita expenditure at the subdistrict level,” Scientific Journal of Informatics, vol. 12, no. 2, pp 283–294, 2025. https://doi.org/10.15294/sji.v12i2.25037

W. A. Nurriza, “Penerapan Model Fay-Herriot pada Small Area Estimation Studi Simulasi Pengeluaran Per Kapita Level Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Kalimantan Timur tahun 2020,” BESTARI: Buletin Statistika dan Aplikasi Terkini, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 29–35, 2021.

A. H. Hakim and N. Hajarisman, “Pendugaan Rata-rata Pengeluaran Per Kapita Menurut Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Barat Melalui Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Prediction dalam Pendugaan Area Kecil,” Bandung Conferences Series: Statistics, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 474–481, 2022. https://doi.org/10.29313/bcss.v2i2.4747

G. H. Zakiya, “Penerapan Model Fay-Herriot pada Small Area Estimation Studi Pengeluaran Per Kapita Level Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Jawa Barat 2020,” Bandung Conferences Series: Statistics, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 343–350, 2022. https://doi.org/10.29313/bcss.v2i2.4323

N. S. Belinda, K.A. Notodiputro, and A. M. Soleh, “BHF and copula models in small area estimation for household per capita expenditure in Bogor District,” Jurnal Natural, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 61–72, 2024. https://doi.org/10.24815/jn.v24i2.37278

K. Ivan, I-H Holobaca, J. Benedek, and I. Torok, “VIIRS nighttime light data for income estimation at local level,” Remote Sensing, vol. 12, no. 18, 2020. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12182950

S. P. Subash, R. R. Kumar, and K. S. Aditya, “Satellite data and machine learning tools for predicting poverty in rural India,” Agricultural Economic Research Review, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 231–240, 2018. https://doi.org/10.5958/0974-0279.2018.00040.X

M. I. Habibie and N. Purwono, “Identification of socio-economic activities as urban growth based on nighttime light data (study on Kendal District-Indonesia),” 2022 IEEE Asia-Pacific Conference on Geoscience, Electronics, and Remote Sensing Technology (AGERS), 2022. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1109/AGERS56232.2022.10093456

F. Afrianto, “East Java Province GRDP projection model using night-time light imagery,” East Java Economic Journal, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 208–223, 2022. https://doi.org/10.53572/ejavec.v6i1.83

A. Surya, Indahwati, and Erfiani, “Study of small area estimation when nighttime lights as an auxiliary information is measured with error,” Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 47–57, 2024. https://doi.org/10.29244/ijsa.v8i1p47-57

P. A. Kaban, B. I. Nasution, R. E. Caraka, and R. Kurniawan, “Implementing night light data as auxiliary variable of small area estimation,” Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods, vol. 53, no. 1, pp. 310–327, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610926.2022.2077963

M. Feriyanto, A. W. Wijayanto, I. Y. Wulansari, and N. B. Parwanto, “Small area estimation approaches using satellite imageries auxiliary data for estimating per capita expenditure in West Java, Indonesia,” Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 205–221, 2024. https://doi.org/10.34123/jurnal asks.v16i2.799

E. Berg, H. Chandra, “Small area prediction for a unit-level lognormal model,” Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, vol 78, pp. 159–175, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2014.03.007

C. D. Elvidge, M. Zhizhin, T. Ghosh, F-C Hsu, and J. Taneja, “Annual time series of global VIIRS nighttime lights derived from monthly averages: 2012 to 2019,” Remote Sensing, vol. 13, no. 5, 2021. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13050922

R. D. Aditya and A. Ubaidillah, “Application of small area estimation for global hunger index at regency/municipality level in Papua Island,” Jurnal Matematika, Statistika, dan Komputasi, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 276–290, 2026. https://doi.org/10.20956/j.v22i2.46784

B. D. Arianingsih, K. Sadik, and Indahwati, “Comparative performance of spatial robust small area estimation methods: a simulation study,” Zero: Jurnal Sains, Matematika, dan Terapan, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 921–931, 2025. https://doi.org/10.30829/zero.v9i3.26477

D. Handayani, K. A. Notodipuro, A. Saefuddin, I. W. Mangku, A. Kurnia, “Spatial empirical best predictor of small area poverty indicator,” Int. J. Advance Soft Compu. Appl, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 103122, 2024. https://doi.org/10.15849/ijasca.240730.07




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30829/zero.v10i2.28716

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 
 
✉  Contact & Indexing
Get in touch with ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan
Email
zero_journal@uinsu.ac.id
WhatsApp · Admin Official
085270009767