PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION OF SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING USING GOLDEN SECTION METHOD FOR GROCERIES FORECASTING

vivi aida fitria

Abstract


Department of Agriculture and Food Security Malang City, especially in the Field of Food Supply Availability and Distribution requires a reference forecasting of food prices in Malang. The method used in the forecasting calculation is Single Exponential Smoothing. In the process of calculating the Single Exponential Smoothing method, it takes alpha parameters between 0 and 1. The problem is when to estimate the alpha value between 0 to 1 with trial error with the aim of producing minimal forecasting results. Therefore, this study aims to determine the optimal alpha value. The method used in this research is the Golden Section Method. The principle of Golden Section method in this study is to reduce the boundary area so as to produce a minimum MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value The data used in this study is the price of 9 commodities of Groceries in Malang since January 1, 2016 until December 31, 2017. The results showed that the Golden Section method found that the optimal alpha value was 0.999 with MAPE average of 9 commodities is 0.79%. So with this golden section method researchers do not need a long time to determine alpha by trial error

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30829/zero.v4i2.3438

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