Spatial Analysis of Indonesia’s 2019 Provincial Voter Turnout Using Geographically Weighted Regression

Ernawati Pasaribu, Ega Eugenia Naomi, Arya Candra Kusuma, Firman Emmanuel Declarantius Parulian

Abstract


This study analyzes spatial heterogeneity in voter behavior using the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, estimated via GWR 4.0 software to ensure reproducibility. Using 2019 provincial-level data, we compare an OLS model against GWR to evaluate the mean voter turnout across Indonesia’s concurrent elections. The GWR model significantly improved estimation performance, evidenced by a reduction in AICc from -140.960 to -146.581 and an increase in Adjusted R² from 36.48% globally to a local range of 65.30%–82.60%. Statistical testing via F-statistic yielded a p-value of 0.0633, significant at the 10% level acceptable given the sample size (n=34). Findings reveal significant spatial non-stationarity: the Gini ratio shows a pervasive positive mobilization effect, while education and infrastructure display region-specific impacts, with infrastructure accessibility strongly influencing turnout in eastern Indonesia. These results underscore the mathematical necessity of incorporating geographic variance into predictive electoral models to capture localized socio-political dynamics.

Keywords


Geographically Weighted Regression; Indonesia General Elections; Political Participation; Spatial Heterogeneity.

Full Text:

PDF

References


N. Kersting, “Voter Turnout , Electoral Rules and Infrastructure,” J. African Elections, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 134–151, 2007.

S. Mehta, S. Mehta, and J. S. Sekhon, “Patterns of Voting Participation in Himachal Pradesh: A Spatial Perspective,” Indian J. Polit. Sci., vol. 41, no. 1, pp. 79–90, 1980.

L. Pelke, “Economic inequality , income , and their effects on electoral and civil society participation in authoritarian,” Z Vgl Polit Wiss, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 269–297, 2020.

L. Manoel, A. C. Costa, and P. Cabral, “Voter Turnout in Portugal : A Geographical Perspective,” Pap. Appl. Geogr., vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 88–111, 2021, doi: 10.1080/23754931.2021.1958251.

Y. Zhang, “Spatial segregation and voting behavior among Asian Americans in 2020 general election,” Soc. Sci. Res., vol. 116, no. 102929, 2023.

K. Horan, C. Brunsdon, and K. Domijan, “A Multilevel Spatial Model to Investigate Voting Behaviour in the 2019 UK General Election,” Appl. Spat. Anal. Policy, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 703–727, 2024.

A. S. Fotheringham, Z. Li, and L. J. Wolf, “Scale, Context, and Heterogeneity: A Spatial Analytical Perspective on the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election,” Ann. Am. Assoc. Geogr., vol. 111, no. 6, pp. 1602–1621, 2021, doi: 10.1080/24694452.2020.1835459.

C. N. Nasution and Y. Widyaningsih, “Klasifikasi Pemilih dalam Pemilu 2019 di Indonesia Menggunakan Regresi Logistik Multinomial dan Chi-Square Automatic Decision Tree ( CHAID ),” J. Stat. dan Apl., vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 148–159, 2022.

T. Huijsmans, A. J. Rijken, and T. Gaidyte, “The Income Gap in Voting : Moderating Effects of Income Inequality and Clientelism,” Polit. Behav., vol. 44, no. 3, pp. 1203–1223, 2022, doi: 10.1007/s11109-020-09652-z.

T. Matsubayashi and S. Sakaiya, “European Journal of Political Economy Income inequality and income bias in voter turnout,” Eur. J. Polit. Econ., vol. 66, no. May 2020, pp. 1–27, 2021.

F. Amat, P. Beramendi, F. Amat, and P. Beramendi, “Economic and Political Inequality : The Role of Political Mobilization,” 2016.

R. A. Parinduri, “Does education increase political participation ? Evidence from Indonesia,” Educ. Econ., vol. 27, no. 6, pp. 645–657, 2019, doi: 10.1080/09645292.2019.1668914.

P. Pelkonen, “Length of compulsory education and voter turnout — evidence from a staged reform,” Public Choice, vol. 150, no. 1, pp. 51–75, 2012, doi: 10.1007/s11127-010-9689-3.

N. Fiorino, N. Pontarollo, and R. Ricciuti, “Spatial links in the analysis of voter turnout in European Parliamentary elections,” Lett. Spat. Resour. Sci., vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 65–78, 2021, doi: 10.1007/s12076-021-00265-6.

E. Mansley, “Space matters : Geographic variability of electoral turnout determinants in the 2012 London mayoral election,” Elect. Stud., vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 322–334, 2015.

P. Yandri, “The Political Geography of Voters and Political Participation : Evidence from Local Election in Suburban Indonesia,” Indones. J. Geogr., vol. 49, no. 1, pp. 57–64, 2017.

I. Amrillah, F. Al, E. Hermawan, and N. Kamilah, “Analysis of The Spatial Distribution Pattern of The City of Bogor Legislative Election Results in 2009 , 2014 and 2019 Using The Moran ’ s Index and Local Indicator of Spatial Association ( LISA ) Methods,” e-Jurnal Penyelid. dan Inov. Islam. Innov. Cent. Technol. UIS, vol. 12, no. 5, pp. 30–52, 2025, doi: 10.53840/ejpi.v12i5.311.

E. Pasaribu, H. Siregar, and F. Nainggolan, Pemodelan Data Spasial dan Aplikasinya 1st ed. Bogor: IPB Press, 2024.

O. El Deeb, “Entropic spatial auto-correlation of voter uncertainty and voter transitions in parliamentary elections,” Pysica A, vol. 617, p. 128675, 2023.

P. Maškarinec, “A Spatial Analysis of Czech Parliamentary Elections , 2006 – 2013,” Eur. Asia. Stud., vol. 69, no. 3, pp. 426–457, 2017, doi: 10.1080/09668136.2017.1313962.

A. S. Fotheringham, C. Brunsdon, and M. Charlton, Geographically Weighted Regression: The Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationships. UK: Wiley, 2002.

C. M. Hurvich and C.-L. Tsai, “Regression and Time Series Model Selection in Small Samples,” Biometrika, vol. 76, no. 2, pp. 297–307, 1989.

S. Openshaw, The Modifiable Areal unit Problem. UK: Geo Book, 1984.

A. S. Fotheringham and D. W. S. Wong, “The modifiable areal unit problem in multivariate statistical analysis,” Environtment Plan. A, vol. 23, pp. 1025–1044, 1991.

S. M. Lipset, “Some Social Requisites of Democracy : Economic Development and Political Legitimacy,” Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., vol. 53, no. 1, pp. 69–105, 1959.

P. Norris, Critical Citizens: Global Support for Democratic Government. UK: Oxford Univ. Press, 1999.

N. H. Nie, J. Junn, and K. Stehlik-Barry, Education and Democratic Citizenship in America. Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press, 1996.

C. Pamungkas, “Noken Electoral System in Papua Deliberative Democracy in Papuan Tradition,” J. Masy. Budaya, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 219–236, 2017.

Mahkamah Konstitusi Republik Indonesia, “Putusan MK No. 47-81/PHPU.A-VII/2009 tentang Perselisihan Hasil Pemilihan Umum (Kasus Sistem Noken),” Jakarta, 2009.

F. Solt and S. Illinois, “Economie Inequality and Democratic Political Engagement,” Midwest Polit. Sci. Assoc., vol. 52, no. 1, pp. 48–60, 2008.

P. N. Saragih and K. Khoirunurrofik, “Road Quality in Indonesia : Is It Linked to Special Allocation Funds and Political Competition ?,” Signifikan J. Ilmu Ekon., vol. 11, no. November 2021, pp. 57–72, 2022.

T. Power and E. Warburton, Democracy in Indonesia: From Stagnation to Regression. Singapore: ISEAS PUblishing, 2020.

E. Aspinall, Islam and Nation: Separatist Rebellion in Aceh, Indonesia. California, 2009.

B. Hillman, “Electoral Governance and Democratic Consolidation in Indonesia,” Indones. Q., vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 301–323, 2011.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30829/zero.v10i1.28152

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Official Contact
Contact Person & Indexing
Contact Person
WA: 085270009767 (Admin Official)
Indexing & Profile